West Bloomfield, Michigan 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

343
FXUS63 KDTX 270932
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
532 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and humid conditions will prevail today through Tuesday.

- Shower and thunderstorm chances return Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Cooler and much drier conditions will arrive by the end of the
week.

&&

.AVIATION...

Variable sky cover early this morning with lower VFR predominate
though transient pockets of MVFR/IFR intermixed. This pattern
persists through mid-morning before diurnal heating/mixing can take
hold and begin lifting/scattering remnant cloud. In the north,
satellite shows an impressive IFR/LIFR stratus bank over
northwestern lower MI that is expanding east towards MBS. These
clouds likely linger over the airport for the first part of the
morning before gradually scattering after sunrise. VFR conditions
firmly take hold across SE MI by early afternoon and eventually turn
clear by evening as high pressure establishing itself overhead. WNW
winds stay on the lighter side today (less than 10kts) and
eventually turn light and variable tonight.

For DTW/D21 Convection... No thunderstorms expected in the forecast
period.

THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Moderate in ceilings aob 5000 feet early this morning, low by late
  morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 304 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2025

DISCUSSION...

There will be a subtle expansion of the broad mid level ridge across
the Ohio and Mid Mississippi Valleys today into Monday, with a
building of a mid level short wave ridge across Lower Mi today. The
circulation around this mid level anticyclone will drive the deep
layer moisture plume now extending across Se Mi south of the state
by afternoon and will support a dry forecast across Se Mi. Overall,
the airmass will remain relatively unchanged aside from perhaps
diurnal mixing offering a slight drop in afternoon sfc dewpoints
into the mid/upper 60s. Otherwise, given better daytime insolation,
afternoon highs will peak into the upper 80s to lower 90s. Low to
mid level anticyclonic flow will continue to influence Se Mi through
tonight, supporting a continued dry forecast.

There is respectable agreement among various high res solutions in
the development of a forward propagating MCS across the upper
Midwest tonight. There are indications that this will advance either
toward or into srn Wisconsin/nrn Illinois Mon morning before
weakening. It is notable that some ensemble members do try to bring
remnant convection into srn Lower Mi. The difficulty in model
solutions handling downstream weakening of any forward propagating
MCS does add some degree of uncertainty to the Monday forecast. The
majority of model solutions and their respective means do suggest
some subtle low level moisture advection (supportive of sfc
dewpoints in the low to possibly mid 70s) with highs rising into the
low 90s Monday. Thus, the forecast will continue to feature a hot
and humid forecast Monday, with heat index values from the mid to
upper 90s. However, if upstream convection or convective cloud
debris does manage to impact srn Mi, a direct impact to temps and
heat indices will result.

The pattern will remain favorable for additional MCS development
within the fast mid level flow across the northern plains and upper
Midwest Monday into Wednesday. It is certainly plausible that
resulting MCVs may advance across Lower Mi Tuesday and Wednesday.
The difficulty in model solutions resolving such features this far
out again adds a level of uncertainty to the forecast. Hot and humid
conditions will prevail Tuesday, again conditioned upon the area not
being impacted by an MCS or its remnants. Medium range model
solutions remain steadfast in showing a pattern shift late in the
week as mid level height falls expand across eastern Canada
resulting and large Canadian high pressure expanding across the
Great Lakes. This will usher in cooler and much less humid air
following the passage of an associated mid week cold front.

MARINE...

Low level moisture holds steady over the Great Lakes with high
pressure continuing to build overhead throughout the day. This has
led to areas marine fog this morning that begins to mix out with
sunrise. Drier conditions emerge for today as the high pressure
establishes a capping inversion. Light winds vary between west and
southwest, with offshore flow ensuring minimal wave action. Strong
ridging over SE CONUS gradually retrogrades toward the southern
Plains over the next couple of days, shifting winds to the NW
Monday. Disturbances continue to glance along the northern fringe of
the high pressure ridge into the Great Lakes through early next
week, keeping shower and thunderstorm chances in the forecast until
a cold front clears out the warm/unstable airmass for the mid to
late week periods. Not expecting much impact on winds/waves with the
frontal passage. Strong high pressure then fills in from Canada late
next week into the weekend resulting in a period of extended dry
weather.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....KDK
DISCUSSION...SC
MARINE.......MV


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